المشاركات
- Dollar Stages an Intraday Recovery as a Risk Appetite Run Fails, Treasuries Plunge and Europe Wavers
- Euro Quietly Edges Higher after Ireland Budget Vote but EURUSD and EURGBP Distract
- British Pound Rallies as Growth Estimates and Manufacturing Distract from Broader Concerns
- New Zealand Dollar Traders Await RBNZ Governor Bollards Forecast for Monetary Policy
- Canadian Dollar Draws a Tepid Response to the BoC’s Dovish Outlook
- Japanese Yen Dives after a Drop in Demand at a 30-Year JGB Auction
Dollar Stages an Intraday Recovery as a Risk Appetite Run Fails, Treasuries Plunge and Europe Wavers
Gauging how the dollar did on Wednesday is a matter of how we measure performance. On a close-over-close basis, the benchmark currency put in for a respectable but modest advance. On the other hand, looking at an intraday chart, the there is a very different assessment to be made. Through the morning, the selling pressure that began in the afternoon hours of Monday’s trading session would carry over and nearly retrace all of the previous day’s gains. Yet, when the US markets came online, this discouraging drift would be dramatically reversed. For the trade-weighted Dollar Index, this translated into a pullback to Monday’s low around 79.20 before the greenback was spurred on to a new high for the week just below 80. For the active FX trader, this performance was best reflected in EURUSD. Threatening a two-month high through the London hours, the influx of US liquidity around 13:30 GMT setoff a 150-point tumble that adds to the argument that the dollar’s correction last week was the correction in the prevailing trend. What is truly encouraging though is the fact that this momentum has extended beyond the US close when liquidity usually dries up.
It is the exception to the rule when we see a trend that is established during the more liquid trading periods (like the intersection between the US and European markets) carries through to the normally ‘quiet’ periods. That is a strong sign of follow through. But, whether or not the dollar succeeds in reviving its impressive, November bull run requires more than modest speculative capitulation. Genuine, fundamental inspiration is needed to make the transition from correction to trend. On that front, we should note the two primary catalysts that we have been following for an assessment of the greenback’s health for a month now: risk appetite trends and the euro’s performance. The speculative bearings for the day were perhaps the most influential on overall price action. The similarities between the intraday charts of the S&P 500 and EURUSD are remarkable. The benchmark equities index (one of my favored measures of risk appetite at the moment) rallied on the open but immediately stalled from there and quickly retraced all the morning’s gains. For the technical trader, making such a consistent hold on November’s swing high is an encouraging sign. That said, the markets are temptingly close to establishing a new leg of a bull trend that has been in place since the beginning of September. So, once again, we are left between reversal and breakout. Attempting to sway risk trends, a State-run Chinese financial journal suggested that the PBoC could raise rates over the weekend – similar efforts led to declines in optimism in the past. Alternatively, further resolution on Ireland’s financial difficulties through a budget vote failed to offer any meaningful relief of financial concerns.
Domestically, there were contrasting developments as to the dollar’s innate value beyond safe haven or euro alternative. On the positive side, Moody’s said it doesn’t see a US rating change in the coming 18 months to two years, job openings in October grew for the first time in three months to their highest level in two years and the President Obama has found a compromise on extending tax breaks for most income levels – which is considered encouraging for the near-term economy. Alternatively, Moody’s voiced concern that the US wasn’t addressing Long-Term concerns (an issue present in the tax extensions); while consumer credit excluding government student loans plunged $28 billion.
Related: Discuss the Dollar in the DailyFX Forum, John’s Analyst Picks: EURUSD Puts in for a Dramatic Recovery, Still Looking for Trend
Euro Quietly Edges Higher after Ireland Budget Vote but EURUSD and EURGBP Distract
It was difficult to gauge the standalone health of the euro when both EURUSD and EURGBP were putting in for significant declines. However, looking at the other liquid crosses, there was a measurable – but relatively modest – bid behind the shared currency. This makes sense given the fundamental developments through the day. Policymakers are doing everything possible to take advantage of the pause in global risk aversion as seen in the Ireland budget vote and ECB bond purchases. According to unnamed sources, the central bank was buying Greek, Irish and Portuguese debt to try and work down yield spreads. At the same time, Ireland was able to push through a $6 billion budget cut in tax hikes and spending reductions. That said, news that large funds are refusing loans to Spain unless the ECB buys bonds shows ongoing pressure.
British Pound Rallies as Growth Estimates and Manufacturing Distract from Broader Concerns
The British pound was the only major to hold onto gains against the US dollar through Tuesday’s session. Yet, heading into Wednesday’s trading hours, GBPUSD has extended its retracement. This capitulation matches event risk. The NIESR GDP estimate for November was a step up at 0.6 percent; but that doesn’t really offset unchanged volume on BRC retail sales and the 0.2 percent drop in industrial production.
New Zealand Dollar Traders Await RBNZ Governor Bollards Forecast for Monetary Policy
Through the next 24 hours, the most headline-worthy scheduled event is the RBNZ’s rate decision. However, the potential in this event is relatively limited. Market expectations show little expectations of a change to rates; and the tempered level of inflation, cooling domestic economy and budding banking concerns certainly support this hold. That said, experienced traders know it is all about the statement.
Canadian Dollar Draws a Tepid Response to the BoC’s Dovish Outlook
The second monetary policy decision this week, the Bank of Canada’s rate decision went off exactly as was expected. The group was dovish on the outlook as was dictated by acceptable inflation levels, a marked cooling in economic activity in the third quarter and worries of global financial instability. That said, the statement did note that this hold “leaves considerable stimulus in place” – an observation with a hawkish tone.
Japanese Yen Dives after a Drop in Demand at a 30-Year JGB Auction
We often forget that the Japanese yen trades on anything other than its connections to carry trade interest and thereby risk appetite trends. However, this is a realization that is starting to sink in. Reminding the market that Japan itself has financial issues, a 30-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) auction saw a sharp drop in demand with the bid to cover dropping to 2.95 from 5.4. A true safe haven the yen is not.
For Real Time Forex News, visit:http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news/
**For a full list of upcoming event risk and past releases, go to www.dailyfx.com/calendar
ECONOMIC DATA
Next 24 Hours
Currency | GMT | Release | Survey | Previous | Comments |
JPY | 23:50 | Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) (OCT) | 954.2B | 926.9B | Japanese current account surplus likely declined in October from a six-month high in the month prior. |
JPY | 23:50 | Current Account Total (Yen) (OCT) | 1481.1B | 1959.8B | |
JPY | 23:50 | Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (OCT) | 1555.8B | 1661.3B | |
JPY | 23:50 | Current Account Balance (YoY) (OCT) | 24.3% | ||
JPY | 23:50 | Machine Orders (MoM) (OCT) | -0.1% | -10.3% | Machinery orders fell for the first time in four months in September. |
JPY | 23:50 | Machine Orders (YoY) (OCT) | 8.3% | 4.2% | |
JPY | 23:50 | Bank Lending Banks Adjustments (YoY) (NOV) | -1.7% | Japanese bank lending declined annually in October for an eleventh consecutive month. | |
JPY | 23:50 | Bank Lending Banks ex Trusts (NOV) | -2.0% | ||
JPY | 23:50 | Bank Lending Banks inc Trusts (YoY) (NOV) | -1.9% | ||
JPY | 23:50 | Japan Money Stock M2+CD (YoY) (NOV) | 2.7% | 2.7% | Japan's M2 money stock increased YoY in each month of 2010. |
JPY | 23:50 | Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (NOV) | 2.1% | 2.0% | |
AUD | 0:30 | Home Loans (OCT) | 0.0% | 1.3% | Home-loan approvals rose 1.3% in September, better than the 1.0% expected rise. |
AUD | 0:30 | Investment Lending (OCT) | 1.7% | ||
AUD | 0:30 | Value of Loans (MoM) (OCT) | 0.6% | ||
JPY | 4:30 | Bankruptcies (YoY) (NOV) | -9.9% | Declined YoY in the last 15 months. | |
JPY | 5:00 | Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (NOV) | 41.1 | Current conditions sit at the lowest level since January. | |
JPY | 5:00 | Eco Watchers Survey: Current (NOV) | 40.2 | ||
EUR | 7:00 | German Trade Balance (euros) (OCT) | 15.1B | 16.8B | Germany's trade balance likely narrowed in October after reaching the largest trade surplus in six months. |
EUR | 7:00 | German Current Account (euros) (OCT) | 14.3B | 14.0B | |
EUR | 7:00 | German Exports s.a. (MoM) (OCT) | 0.0% | 3.0% | |
EUR | 7:00 | German Imports s.a. (MoM) (OCT) | 1.0% | -1.6% | |
EUR | 7:30 | Bank of France Business Sentiment (NOV) | 103 | 103 | At highest level since March 2008. |
EUR | 7:45 | French Central Government Balance (euros) (OCT) | -124.2B | Trade gap narrowed in November from a near two-year high. | |
EUR | 7:45 | French Trade Balance (euros) (OCT) | -4.2B | -4.7B | |
EUR | 11:00 | German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (OCT) | 1.0% | -0.8% | Industrial production unexpectedly declined in September. |
EUR | 11:00 | German Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT) | 10.0% | 7.9% | |
GBP | 11:00 | CBI Trends Total Orders (DEC) | -13 | -15 | Posted first gain in three months. |
USD | 12:00 | MBA Mortgage Applications (DEC 3) | -16.5% | Dec. decline largest since 2009. | |
CAD | 13:15 | Housing Starts (NOV) | 173.0K | 167.9K | |
USD | 15:30 | DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (DEC 3) | -1500K | 1066K | U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 170K barrels per day below the previous week's average. |
USD | 15:30 | DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (DEC 3) | -750K | 561K | |
USD | 15:30 | DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (DEC 3) | -900K | -194K | |
NZD | 20:00 | RBNZ Rate Decision | 3.00% | 3.00% | Market implies no chance of hike. |
NZD | 21:45 | NZ Card Spending (MoM) (NOV) | 0.8% | Increased in four of past six months. |
Currency | GMT | Upcoming Events & Speeches |
EUR | 9:00 | ECB's Erkki Liikanen Speaks on European Economy |
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE - 18:00 GMT
Currency | EUR/USD | GBP/USD | USD/JPY | USD/CHF | USD/CAD | AUD/USD | NZD/USD | EUR/JPY | GBP/JPY |
Resist 2 | 1.3840 | 1.6420 | 89.00 | 1.0460 | 1.0922 | 1.0600 | 0.8230 | 127.60 | 146.05 |
Resist 1 | 1.3700 | 1.5800 | 86.00 | 1.0000 | 1.0750 | 1.0200 | 0.8000 | 120.00 | 140.00 |
Spot | 1.3281 | 1.5767 | 83.52 | 0.9874 | 1.0099 | 0.9858 | 0.7595 | 110.93 | 131.69 |
Support 1 | 1.3000 | 1.5500 | 80.00 | 0.9500 | 0.9950 | 0.9600 | 0.6850 | 103.80 | 125.00 |
Support 2 | 1.2925 | 1.5300 | 75.00 | 0.9000 | 0.9700 | 0.9375 | 0.6585 | 100.00 | 119.00 |
CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE –EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMTSCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT
Currency | USD/MXN | USD/TRY | USD/ZAR | USD/HKD | USD/SGD | Currency | USD/SEK | USD/DKK | USD/NOK | |
Resist 2 | 14.4500 | 1.6755 | 8.7915 | 7.8165 | 1.4945 | Resist 2 | 7.7500 | 5.7800 | 6.2750 | |
Resist 1 | 13.8500 | 1.4865 | 8.3675 | 7.8075 | 1.4655 | Resist 1 | 7.5800 | 5.5400 | 6.1150 | |
Spot | 12.4812 | 1.4827 | 6.9135 | 7.7624 | 1.3108 | Spot | 6.8840 | 5.6121 | 5.9956 | |
Support 1 | 12.0500 | 1.3665 | 6.6950 | 7.7490 | 1.2750 | Support 1 | 6.4500 | 5.2625 | 5.7030 | |
Support 2 | 11.7200 | 1.3475 | 6.4300 | 7.7450 | 1.2500 | Support 2 | 6.1250 | 5.1000 | 5.5200 |
INTRA-DAY PIVOT POINTS 18:00 GMT
Currency | EUR/USD | GBP/USD | USD/JPY | USD/CHF | USD/CAD | AUD/USD | NZD/USD | EUR/JPY | GBP/JPY |
Resist 2 | 1.3450 | 1.5884 | 84.49 | 0.9965 | 1.0177 | 1.0015 | 0.7706 | 112.08 | 133.28 |
Resist 1 | 1.3365 | 1.5825 | 84.01 | 0.9920 | 1.0138 | 0.9937 | 0.7651 | 111.50 | 132.48 |
Pivot | 1.3317 | 1.5765 | 83.17 | 0.9838 | 1.0075 | 0.9886 | 0.7611 | 110.54 | 131.02 |
Support 1 | 1.3232 | 1.5706 | 82.69 | 0.9793 | 1.0036 | 0.9808 | 0.7556 | 109.96 | 130.22 |
Support 2 | 1.3184 | 1.5646 | 81.85 | 0.9711 | 0.9973 | 0.9757 | 0.7516 | 109.00 | 128.76 |
INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT
\
Currency | EUR/USD | GBP/USD | USD/JPY | USD/CHF | USD/CAD | AUD/USD | NZD/USD | EUR/JPY | GBP/JPY |
Resist. 3 | 1.3470 | 1.5945 | 84.49 | 0.9993 | 1.0210 | 1.0002 | 0.7708 | 112.64 | 133.61 |
Resist. 2 | 1.3423 | 1.5901 | 84.25 | 0.9963 | 1.0182 | 0.9966 | 0.7680 | 112.21 | 133.13 |
Resist. 1 | 1.3375 | 1.5856 | 84.01 | 0.9933 | 1.0154 | 0.9930 | 0.7652 | 111.78 | 132.65 |
Spot | 1.3281 | 1.5767 | 83.52 | 0.9874 | 1.0099 | 0.9858 | 0.7595 | 110.93 | 131.69 |
Support 1 | 1.3187 | 1.5678 | 83.03 | 0.9815 | 1.0044 | 0.9786 | 0.7538 | 110.08 | 130.73 |
Support 2 | 1.3139 | 1.5633 | 82.79 | 0.9785 | 1.0016 | 0.9750 | 0.7510 | 109.65 | 130.25 |
Support 3 | 1.3092 | 1.5589 | 82.55 | 0.9755 | 0.9988 | 0.9714 | 0.7482 | 109.22 | 129.77 |
v
ليست هناك تعليقات:
إرسال تعليق